CDR: Carbon Dioxide Removal

Lignocellulosic crops such as Miscanthus, Eucalyptus, Poplar, Willow, and Switchgrass are gaining attention as promising feedstocks for renewable energy and carbon-mitigation strategies, especially on marginal lands. Assessing their global yield potentials requires models that go beyond climate drivers alone. Using a global dataset of 3963 yield observations for five species, we developed a high-resolution (5-arc-minute) modeling framework that augments climate with detailed soil and topographic predictors. Among seven machine learning algorithms, Random Forest, Extra Trees, and Gradient Boosting (GB) emerged as top performers. On an independent test set, the best model achieved a root mean square error (RMSE) of 4.8 t DM ha−1 year−1 (across algorithms: 4.7–5.0 t DM ha−1 year−1) and an R2 of 0.67, a moderate error relative to the broad 4–19 t DM ha−1 year−1 spatial yield range. After outlier handling via a two-phase cross-validation procedure, each model was applied globally under current climate and three future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). Across scenarios (relative to the 1980–2000 baseline), median absolute yield changes over suitable land are modest (ca. 1–2 t DM ha−1 year−1), yet localized hotspots show gains or losses up to 8 t DM ha−1 year−1. Yields most often increase in presently cool, high-latitude areas and decrease in warmer/drier or edaphically constrained low-latitude regions. We additionally provide a “best-crop” map identifying where each species may offer the most favorable balance between yield and production cost, revealing pronounced geographic variation in suitability. Compared with alternative models based on coarser-resolution datasets, our approach generally yields more conservative estimates, likely reflecting the added constraint from soil and topographic predictors. These results underscore the importance of representing local environmental heterogeneity when predicting energy-crop productivity under climate change.

Recent studies outline markedly different possible decarbonization pathways for civil aviation by 2050. This paper examines how the key assumptions retained in these scenarios (i.e., the posited deployment of sustainable aviation fuels [SAFs], the projected demand trajectory, and the availability of electric and hydrogen-fueled solutions) affect the sector's future emissions of greenhouse gas. Data for 67 recent scenarios from industry-related, academic, institutional, and think tanks/NGO sources are used to perform the analysis. The results shed light on the shared properties of these scenarios. First, we find a clear consensus on the negative impact of SAFs on residual GHG emissions by 2050, conditioning to a high level of SAF penetration. Second, these scenarios posit a smaller decarbonizing power of biomass-based SAF than that of e-fuel. Third, we find signs of authorship bias in some scenarios. This last finding, therefore, raises concerns about the direct use of these scenarios in policymaking.

Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) are crucial for decarbonizing aviation, but scaling up production faces major challenges. This review emphasizes the need for strategic investments and policies to ensure SAF’s sustainability and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

The aim of this work is therefore to assess how the application of dynamic LCA can be facilitated based on: the modelling tool Temporalis, the time dimension of the functional unit, and the contribution of the time dimension to the accuracy of results.

How should negative emissions be accounted for in CCU life cycle assessments? This study highlights key challenges and reveals how methodological choices impact results, proposing a refined approach for consistency in CCU and NET assessments.

As the climate crisis intensifies, global research on carbon removal is accelerating. This study reveals the explosive growth of CDR technologies, the key players driving innovation, and the emerging trends that will shape the future of climate action.

The research performed by Sibylle introduces methodological and practical advancements to improve the assessment of negative emissions from CCU systems. Key methodological contributions include refined approaches for accounting for atmospheric CO2, defining functional units, and managing multifunctionality.

Following the retirement of Jean-Pierre Deflandre and the departure of Olivier Massol from IFP School, the CarMa Chair is entering a new chapter with the appointment of Carlos Andrade and Schenckery Thémistocle as its new co-holders. Both bring a wealth of expertise and a strong commitment to advancing research in carbon management and negative emissions technologies. Their leadership will ensure the continuity of the chair’s mission, fostering innovation and collaboration between academia and industry to tackle the challenges of decarbonization. We extend our gratitude to Jean-Pierre and Olivier for their invaluable contributions and wish them all the best in their future endeavors.

The social acceptability of BECCS technology is a very complex phenomenon as national and local contexts shape debates and influence the deployment of this technology. This research highlights key challenges to advance the adoption of this decarbonization solution, including scale, international cooperation, and the need to pair BECCS with other emission reduction strategies. BECCS alone cannot effectively combat climate change.

Last December, on behalf of the CarMa Research Team, Jean-Pierre Deflandre participated to one of the workshops jointly organized by Carbon-Gap and E-Cube to design the first roadmap for CDR deployment in France.

CarMa had the honor of being interviewed by the Haut Conseil pour le Climat during the preparation of their recommendation report entitled "Avis sur la stratégie de capture du carbone, d'utilisation et de stockage (CCUS)" published in November 2023 just before COP28.

Assessing the role of negative emission technologies for the decarbonization of energy intensive industries using TIMES-EU model.

In July 2023, Romain Presty had the pleasure of attending the IEAGHG International CCS Summer School hosted by the International CCS Knowledge Centre in Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada.

Ms. Sibylle Duval-Dachary, with the help of her supervisors, published her first article: “Life cycle assessment of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage systems: Critical review of life cycle inventories”

Dr. Solène Chiquier joined on March 23, 2023 the CarMa Research team for a 18-month post-doctoral research work based at Massassuchets Institute of Technology (MIT) in the Prof. Sergey Paltsev's research group.

Paul Bardon joined the CarMa Chair of IFP School for an internship from May to July 2023. His research focuses on the applications of carbon dioxide removal technologies in the aviation sector, notably through sustainable aviation fuels.

Dr. Emma Jagu-Schippers has been awarded the "Prix Spécial du Jury : Impact Société" by the jury of the Fondation CentraleSupélec thesis prize.

On March 23, 2023, Solène Chiquier joined the CarMa research team to start her postdoctoral research work at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

Call for Papers - Topical Issue on "The role of Negative Emissions Technologies in 2050 decarbonation pathways" Your research interest deals with Negative Emissions Technologies, you are welcome to publish your work in the Sciences and Technologies for Energy Transition (STET) special Issue on NETs.

CarMa Research Team | Post-Doctoral Program | Doctoral Program